back in February<\/a> and U.S. enemies know that America\u2019s military prowess in Syria can quickly extend beyond the troops it has on the ground\u2014that prospect now appears to be gone.<\/p>\nA U.S. withdrawal from Syria could allow ISIS\u2019s resurgence in both Syria and Iraq, create a vacuum that will most likely be filled by the Assad regime and Iran, and abandon Kurdish (and Arab) allies on the ground.<\/p>\n
THE PRE-TRUMP PROBLEMS<\/h2>\n
The United States has been here before. In its previous incarnation, al-Qaida in Iraq, ISIS had its back to the wall after the United States worked more closely with local Arab Sunni Iraqi forces known as the \u201cAwakening Movement\u201d to push back against the jihadis and liberate northern Iraq. But then U.S. troops withdrew in 2011 under the orders of President Obama. In the space of just three years, the jihadis re-emerged by taking control of swaths of territory across Syria and Iraq, capitalizing on the Syrian civil-war, sectarian tensions in Iraq, and the collapse of the Iraqi military by establishing and declaring its proto-state in June 2014.<\/p>\n
As Obama\u2019s withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 also showed, Iran has a proven and effective capacity to fill the voids left by the United States to entrench and embolden its proxies, which directly weakens America\u2019s interests and allies in the region. In Iraq, it resulted in the suppression of Arab Sunnis, the creation of parallel state institutions, and the ascendancy of sectarian Shiite militia groups backed by Iran, which collectively created the grievances and conditions that enabled ISIS in 2014.<\/p>\n
WHAT THE WITHDRAWAL MEANS FOR ISIS<\/h2>\n
ISIS may have lost its \u201ccaliphate\u201d and is on the decline, but it is far from defeated. Rather, it continues to present a menacing threat to both Syria and Iraq. In both countries, the jihadi organization has proven a formidable and resilient force, maintaining pockets of resistance against local forces as it attempts to re-establish itself, as well as initiating a campaign of assassinations, predation, and extortion against local communities.<\/p>\n
In other words, Trump is making the same mistakes President Obama made. Trump\u2019s withdrawal from Syria will allow ISIS to revitalize itself in the coming months and years, as well as reinvent itself and retake control of territory in conflict environments that could help the group ascend for many years to come. ISIS and other extremists will enjoy a freer hand in mobilizing susceptible Syrians who have wide-ranging grievances, and although Trump may believe Russia will take on the task of confronting ISIS and its ilk, Moscow\u2019s record during the conflict suggests otherwise.<\/p>\n
WHAT THE WITHDRAWAL MEANS FOR IRAN<\/h2>\n
Beyond the ISIS concern, a U.S. withdrawal will inevitably leave a broader void that America\u2019s enemies will fill. The tens of thousands of Iranian proxies in Syria\u2014or a combination of those proxies and forces aligned with the Syrian regime\u2014will be empowered following Trump\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n
In Syria, Iran will have an unrivalled capacity to shape the political landscape as a result of Trump\u2019s withdrawal, emboldened to further influence Syria\u2019s politics, economy, and security sector, as well as the reconstruction resources that the international community may at some point inject into the country. Withdrawing will help Iran strategically, giving it more space to pursue its long-sought land bridge linking Tehran to Beirut and the Mediterranean, for instance. Overall, the U.S. pull-out will have reverberations throughout the region, tilting the regional balance of power further in Iran\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n
All this comes at a moment when U.S. sanctions\u2014as well as Israeli incursions into Syria\u2014have put Tehran under substantial pressure in recent months. By maintaining its troops in the east, the United States constrained Iran and offered some Syrians a reprieve from the fighting.<\/p>\n