Abiy Ahmed has been awarded this year\u2019s Nobel Peace Prize. Never heard of him? You aren\u2019t the only one. Official Washington has paid little attention to the extraordinary transition that began last year in Ethiopia under the new prime minster\u2019s tutelage. The man in the eye-popping blazers \u2014 think sea foam green with pink stripes and leopard print inlays \u2014 began his tenure with equal flair: He lifted the long-repressed nation\u2019s state of emergency, released thousands of political prisoners, halted media censorship, and appointed women to top posts. Winning international praise at each turn, he also ended two decades of frozen conflict with neighboring Eritrea \u2014 the act for which his prize was nominally bestowed.<\/p>\n
But the Nobel Committee\u2019s announcement is also a call for attention: Abiy has finally taken the lid off Ethiopia, initiating one of the world\u2019s most important political transitions, but also its most fragile.<\/p>\n
Well aware of the challenges Abiy and his 110 million constituents face, and the problems already manifest, the committee\u2019s announcement cited concern about growing \u201cethnic strife\u201d and the social unrest that in recent years has displaced some three million<\/em> people \u2014 more than anywhere else in the world. \u201cNo doubt some people will think this year\u2019s prize is being awarded too early\u201d they noted in pre-emptory fashion. But the committee believes \u201cit is now\u201d that the prime minister\u2019s efforts \u201cdeserve recognition\u201d and \u201cneed encouragement.\u201d They\u2019re right on both counts.<\/p>\n Among Ethiopians (and many foreign observers), opinions of the 43-year old prime minister are as diverse as they are passionate. Supporters refer to him, not infrequently, as a \u201cgift from god,\u201d hailing his divinely inspired agenda and his rhetoric of unity and reconciliation. Critics balk at what\u2019s become known as \u201cAbiy-mania,\u201d however, variously concerned that the Pentecostal preacher-in-chief is na\u00efve, self-aggrandizing, or an unconvincing product of the old guard. (Abiy is a member of the ruling Ethiopian People\u2019s Revolutionary Democratic Front, or EPRDF, which has ruled the country since 1991 and is known for its abuses of democracy and the security and intelligence establishment from whence he came.)<\/p>\n Whatever one thinks of Abiy, he deserves genuine credit for ending a senseless stalemate with Eritrea, and for the gusto with which he has pledged to usher in an era of openness, modernity, and economic liberalization at home. Even prominent skeptics agree. After unprecedented protests gripped the nation in 2018, and in turn paved Abiy\u2019s unlikely path to the top, one former regime figure told me that while he did not believe Abiy was the \u201cright doctor for Ethiopia\u2019s long-term care,\u201d he may be the \u201cemergency room medic we need\u201d right now.<\/p>\n The prestigious recognition, while deserved, must be accompanied by a sober appreciation of what came before Abiy, and of the bumpy road ahead. The ruling EPRDF is a marriage of convenience, a four-tentacled coalition that allowed each ethno-regional arm a degree of autonomy and a share of the national cake. While famously disciplined and undeniably heavy-handed, proponents of the liberation movement-turned ruling party argued their formula is what has held one of Africa\u2019s largest and most diverse countries together for three decades.<\/p>\n At the center of the coalition was the Tigrayan Peoples\u2019 Liberation Front (TPLF) \u2014 a minority from the country\u2019s northern highlands that dominated the regime\u2019s political and security structures until the passing of its intellectual strongman, Meles Zenawi, in 2012. Abiy isn\u2019t one of them, and his ascension in 2018 was a watershed moment. The outgoing TPLF \u2014 unaccustomed to anything but total control \u2014 was thus believed to be the greatest threat to Abiy\u2019s rule and his plan to overhaul the state they fashioned.<\/p>\n The new leader\u2019s declaration of peace with Eritrea was an historic and courageous act. More than 80,000 died on the battlefield between 1998-2000, and the two countries had been locked in a tense standoff ever since. When Abiy and his Eritrean counterpart personally opened the border crossings last fall, his office announced the \u201cradical transformation\u201d of the border into a \u201cfrontier of peace and friendship.\u201d Citizens from both countries flooded across the boundary for the first time in 20 years. When the first flight between the two nations touched down in Eritrea\u2019s capital city, families long divided by war embraced on the tarmac, tears streaming down their faces. Abiy\u2019s opening to Eritrea was right on its merits. But it was also motivated by domestic politics.<\/p>\n Much of the war was fought in Tigrayan territory, near the border with Eritrea, and the hostility between the TPLF and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki is hard to over-state. Abiy and Isaias thus shared an interest, as one seasoned observer noted, of \u201cchoking the life out of the TPLF.\u201d Since Abiy\u2019s arrival, TPLF bosses have left their privileged posts and returned home to Tigray \u2014 first to lick their wounds, and then to organize. And they aren\u2019t alone \u2014 the powerful Amhara and Oromo constituencies have likewise reinvigorated their political cadres, their regional security forces, and their nationalist rhetoric. Some argue the EPRDF coalition will persist in one form or another, its inherent compromise too valuable to each constituent part. Others believe it is already dead.<\/p>\n National elections are slated for 2020. Some worry Abiy won\u2019t be able to hold it together, much less to advance his sweeping domestic and regional agendas. (The border crossings to Eritrea have been closed again, and full implementation of the peace pact remains an aspiration.) Others fear that when the going gets tough, Abiy may resort to an all-too familiar playbook of repression. As such, the Nobel Committee is also hoping this year\u2019s prize can both encourage its recipient to stay the course and act as a guardrail as his government enters a period of profound political uncertainty.<\/p>\n This is not the first time Alfred Nobel\u2019s trustees have sought to maximize the award\u2019s political potential, or the first time its recipient has proven controversial. Aung San Suu Kyi, then a Burmese opposition figure, received the prize in 1991 for championing human rights and a \u201cdemocratic society in which [her] country\u2019s ethnic groups could cooperate in harmony.\u201d She was later elected to the country\u2019s top political post, and like Abiy, won great international acclaim. But when her government was accused of killings, human rights violations, and ethnic cleansing last year, many called for the Nobel committee to take back her prize.<\/p>\n Abiy Ahmed was right; the time for change in Ethiopia had come. Now he must balance tradition and modernity, democratization and stability, ethnic loyalties and national identity. The success or failure of Abiy\u2019s high wire act will shape not only his country, but the entire region, for a generation to come.<\/p>\n When I asked another of the prime minister\u2019s skeptics what he thought of last week\u2019s Nobel announcement, he opted not for the usual cynicism, but for the spirit of unity Abiy has championed. \u201cI am celebrating,\u201d he said, \u201cafter all, this is the first Ethiopian ever to win the prize.\u201d Here\u2019s to hoping that all Ethiopians can celebrate Abiy\u2019s prize for a generation to come, and that no one ever has to ask for it back.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Abiy Ahmed has been awarded this year\u2019s Nobel Peace Prize. Never heard of him? You aren\u2019t the only one. Official Washington has paid little attention to the extraordinary transition that began last year in Ethiopia under the new prime minster\u2019s tutelage. The man in the eye-popping blazers \u2014 think sea foam green with pink stripes… Continue reading Alfred Nobel catches \u2018Abiy-mania\u2019 Praise and caution for Ethiopia’s prize winner<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":465369,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication_archive_type":[297],"class_list":["post-465364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","publication_archive_type-issue-brief","entry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/465364","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=465364"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/465364\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":465371,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/465364\/revisions\/465371"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/465369"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=465364"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=465364"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=465364"},{"taxonomy":"publication_archive_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication_archive_type?post=465364"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}