Decade after the overthrow of longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi, Libya is set to hold elections this December to produce a unified government. As the date approaches, the country\u2019s Maghreb neighbors \u2014 Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco \u2014 are showing intensified interest in its ongoing peace process.<\/p>\n
Algerian decisionmakers resumed<\/a> Libya flights, opened a sea line between Algiers and Tripoli, and recently appointed Ramtane Lamamra \u2014 who has been highly engaged in the Libya dossier \u2014 as foreign minister. Tunisia remains most interested in controlling security risks and reestablishing economic ties and has signed<\/a> agreements with Libya over the summer to promote mutual trade, investment, and movement of travelers. Morocco, the birthplace of the 2015 Skhirat agreement (which recognized the Government of National Unity as Libya\u2019s sole legitimate authority), is organizing<\/a> meetings between rival Libyan actors and bilateral talks with officials on potential cooperation in the fields of enhanced security, trade, and renewable energy.<\/p>\n Despite a problematic lack of coordination on the Libya dossier between these states, all putatively agree that elections are the best way forward for the conflict-stricken country. Furthermore, they have all consistently supported inter-Libyan dialogue that promotes Libya voices. Yet their heightened interest over recent months raises questions. Why have they become increasingly invested in Libya, and what do they stand to gain from its stability?<\/p>\n The\u00a0primary\u00a0reason\u00a0behind\u00a0Maghreb interest in Libya\u2019s stability is the security threat\u00a0which\u00a0continued chaos represents.\u00a0As political instability piqued in Libya following 2011, it\u00a0led to increased terrorism, organized crime, weapons proliferation, and drug trafficking.\u00a0This is especially problematic for\u00a0Algeria and Tunisia,\u00a0which\u00a0share porous land borders\u00a0with Libya.\u00a0The Tunisian government has\u00a0significantly increased\u00a0security\u00a0spending<\/a>\u00a0since the collapse of the Libyan security sector, while the Algerian regime increased the number of troops<\/a> along its shared border.\u00a0Even Morocco, which is not a direct neighbor, has been impacted by instability in Libya, particularly in terms of the threat of terrorism. As Moroccan fighters joined the\u00a0Islamic State\u00a0group\u2019s\u00a0branch<\/a> in Libya \u2014 from where the terrorist organization planned to launch attacks on Europe \u2014 their imminent return created risks for the kingdom\u2019s security.<\/p>\n Furthermore, because of the power vacuum in Tripoli, the possibility of terrorist organizations and rebel groups launching their offensives from Libya was a real threat for the entire North Africa region, as\u00a0evidenced\u00a0when a\u00a0Chadian military-political rebel group<\/a>\u00a0launched a battle that killed President Idris\u00a0D\u00e9by\u00a0Itno. The collapse of Libya\u2019s security sector has also made it possible for\u00a0weapons smuggling, drug trafficking, and other criminal activity<\/a> to take place at an intensified level. While prior to 2011 Libya saw little trafficking in drugs other than cannabis, it is now a\u00a0well-established route<\/a>\u00a0for\u00a0cocaine, heroin, and amphetamines.<\/p>\n This could explain why certain Maghreb states have signaled the possibility of military partnership with Libya\u2019s Government of National Unity.\u00a0The president of\u00a0Algeria, a\u00a0historically isolationist<\/a>\u00a0country,\u00a0claimed<\/a>\u00a0that he was ready to \u201cenforce red lines\u201d against Field Marshal Khalifa\u00a0Hifter. Furthermore, a\u00a02020\u00a0reform<\/a> of the country\u2019s constitution made it possible for the Algerian army to deploy overseas, a change from a decades-old non-interventionist military policy. Morocco and Libya meanwhile are in advanced talks<\/a> on enhanced cooperation on terrorism and migration and aim to enter into a military partnership.\u202fIt is true that the aforementioned Algerian constitutional reform is likely also due to the rising instability in the\u00a0Sahel<\/a> region and that the Morocco talks are possibly another way for the kingdom to maintain its involvement in the Libya dossier and promote its interests. However, these developments suggest that the two countries are taking steps to ensure they would be able to protect themselves from a security threat emanating from Libya or to intervene to deescalate such a situation.<\/p>\n Tunisia is perhaps the Maghreb state that stands to gain the most from reinstating strong economic ties with Libya.\u00a0Since\u00a02011, its economy has been impacted by\u00a0emigration of Libyans to Tunisia\u00a0as well as\u00a0the return of Tunisian workers from\u00a0the country. The security threat also contributed to reduced tourism and investment as well as increased security spending.\u00a0The World Bank\u00a0estimated<\/a> that, between 2011 and 2015, the Libyan crisis reduced Tunisia\u2019s growth by 24%.<\/p>\n Stability in Libya would gradually reverse these effects and would open the door for bilateral economic cooperation.\u00a0Increased\u00a0tourism and trade\u00a0would boost Tunisia\u2019s fragile and\u00a0COVID-19-hit economy. The recently opened borders have already allowed Tunisian\u00a0merchants<\/a>\u00a0in impoverished areas to travel to Libya and sell their merchandise.\u00a0Both sides aim to boost cooperation in trade, investment, and tourism down the line as was seen during a Libyan-Tunisian economic\u00a0forum<\/a>\u00a0held in Libya last May.<\/p>\n Morocco, which did not enjoy strong economic ties with Libya under the Gadhafi regime, could also benefit from new trade and energy deals. Moroccan decisionmakers are working towards this. The kingdom\u2019s foreign minister announced<\/a>\u00a0in June\u00a0the organization of a second\u00a0bilateral economic forum. That same month, Libya\u2019s\u00a0minister of\u00a0oil\u00a0and\u00a0gas\u00a0discussed<\/a> ongoing talks about renewable energy cooperation with Morocco.<\/p>\n To a lesser extent,\u00a0Algerian officials<\/a> have also recently shown that they are open to improving trade with Libya and reopening the shard land border which could turn into a major economic zone. Like Tunisia and Morocco, Algeria also organized an economic forum<\/a>\u00a0with Libya and signed an\u00a0agreement<\/a>\u00a0on trade exchange and industrial forums.\u00a0Algiers has also provided\u00a0economic assistance<\/a> to communities in southwest Libya, including food aid in 2014 during the tribal conflict between the Tebu and Tuareg tribes.<\/p>\n A potential benefit from peace in Libya on the regional level could be bolstered\u00a0intra-regional economic integration in the Maghreb<\/a>. Trade between Maghreb states stood at 2.8% in 2019, compared to 10.7% between the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Reasons include the crisis in Libya as well as logistical constraints and tensions between Algeria and Morocco. Peace in Libya could present a small possibility for improvement and could make it possible for these states to consolidate economic integration and start initiatives for cross-border security cooperation.<\/p>\n Beyond their domestic interests, some Maghreb states are invested in the Libyan peace process in and of itself to bolster their position on the regional and international stages. Since hosting the meetings which resulted in the signing of the Skhirat agreement, Morocco has organized multiple talks on the issue of key institutional positions, as recently as this summer<\/a>. Moroccan decisionmakers attach great importance to the kingdom\u2019s role in the Libyan peace process, which Rabat views as a way to bolster its international reputation as a credible mediator. This could explain why Moroccan officials were slighted by their exclusion<\/a>\u00a0from the 2018 Berlin Conference (to which Algeria and Tunisia were eventually invited) and why the kingdom was subsequently relatively absent on the\u00a0Libya\u00a0dossier between 2018 and 2020.<\/p>\n By intensifying its involvement in Libya, Morocco also seeks to\u00a0check rival Algeria\u2019s influence in the region. As Algeria recently\u00a0came to agreements with Tunisia, Egypt,\u00a0and Turkey on the crisis\u00a0in Tripoli \u2014\u00a0suggesting intensified interest in Algiers on the dossier\u00a0\u2014\u00a0Morocco may come to fear that its influence\u00a0on Libya\u00a0and the region may diminish. This would in turn exacerbate its tensions with Algeria and push it to become even more involved in Libya.<\/p>\n Libya\u2019s peace process will remain a complicated one. Even\u00a0if\u00a0elections take place this December,\u00a0the vote goes smoothly, and it results in a unified government which\u00a0Hifter\u00a0does not contest, the road ahead will still be long. It may take years for Libya\u2019s neighbors to reap economic and security benefits.<\/p>\n Yet, in this scenario, the regional security threat would diminish in the near future which would ease pressure across the board. The Tunisian government could reduce security spending, while Algeria and Morocco could refocus their security efforts on the Sahel region. Foreign investment in the Maghreb would also eventually pick up in the medium to long term, as could tourism (depending on the epidemiological situation).<\/p>\n In the meantime, Maghreb countries will continue to pursue their individual interests through their ties with Libya. The government in Tunisia will likely seek to sign further agreements relating to commerce and tourism while keeping its eye on potential energy deals down the line. Algeria will remain most concerned with the potential security threat that could come out of Libya should the peace process fail, though it is unlikely to intervene militarily beyond securing their shared border. Morocco will aim to assert its role as mediator while preserving the Skhirat institutions. To this end, it will most likely hold more\u00a0Bouznika<\/a>-style meetings between rival actors. However, a unified Maghreb response to the Libyan crisis is highly unlikely\u00a0as\u00a0long as\u00a0tensions and ideological differences persist.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Decade after the overthrow of longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi, Libya is set to hold elections this December to produce a unified government. As the date approaches, the country\u2019s Maghreb neighbors \u2014 Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco \u2014 are showing intensified interest in its ongoing peace process. Algerian decisionmakers resumed Libya flights, opened a sea line between… Continue reading Libya\u2019s peace process: What\u2019s at stake for the Maghreb, 10 years after Gadhafi\u2019s overthrow<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":464747,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication_archive_type":[],"class_list":["post-464743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","entry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/464743","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=464743"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/464743\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":464755,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/464743\/revisions\/464755"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/464747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=464743"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=464743"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=464743"},{"taxonomy":"publication_archive_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication_archive_type?post=464743"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}SECURITY<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n
ECONOMY<\/strong><\/h2>\n
REGIONAL<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong>COMPETITION<\/strong><\/h2>\n
OUTLOOK: AFTER<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong>PEACE?<\/strong><\/h2>\n