In this second Arab spring, it is apparent that the euphoria of the opening phase, while well deserved, was somewhat premature. With Tunisia\u2019s Ben Ali and Egypt\u2019s Mubarak falling after just weeks of protests, there was a sense that “it could happen anywhere – and just as quickly.” But Arab autocrats have redoubled their efforts, growing both more stubborn and more emboldened in their efforts to preserve power.<\/p>\n
The lesson many of them seemed to learn from Egypt and Tunisia was almost the exact opposite of what democracy advocates were hoping for. Ben Ali and Mubarak used force (at least 380 people were killed in Egypt) and lost. Perhaps, then, leaders would learn to pre-empt opposition demands by granting early concessions. Instead, in countries like Bahrain, Syria, and Saudi Arabia, they have granted fewer concessions while using even more force. Shooting into crowds has become frighteningly common. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is enthusiastically adopting the dubious role of leader of the Arab \u201ccounter-revolution\u201d.<\/p>\n
These revolutions, then, will take longer than was expected. Still, it\u2019s worth remembering the main lesson of this opening period: autocracies don\u2019t last forever. They are stable – until they\u2019re not. And then it\u2019s too late. Even if regimes manage to hold on to power, their stability is no longer guaranteed. With a new \u201cprotest ethic\u201d taking hold in the region, the threat of the next revolt is now always present. The model is devastatingly simple: bring enough people into the streets and overwhelm the regime with sheer numbers. \u201cNo state\u201d, observed sociologist Charles Kurzman, \u201ccan repress all of the people all of the time.\u201d<\/p>\n
In contrast to the courage of Arab protesters is the relative timidity and incoherence of the international community\u2019s response to the changes underway. The west\u2019s \u201cstability paradigm\u201d – the notion that interests could be exchanged for ideals – has collapsed under the weight of its inherent contradictions. While the intervention in Libya helped western nations gain some Arab goodwill, many in the Arab world are waiting to see if they will consistently apply the \u201cresponsibility to protect\u201d with allied countries, such as Bahrain and Yemen, where civilians are clearly in need of protection.<\/p>\n
No one is asking for another military intervention, but what about putting real political pressure on regimes to respect opposition demands? With the region\u2019s various political stalemates, the role of external actors is – for better or worse – likely only to grow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-14064","opinion","type-opinion","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/opinion\/14064","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/opinion"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/opinion"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14064"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}