Egyptians are getting angry. Their anger, more often than not, is
\ndirected towards the regime of the president Hosni Mubarak, which is
\nrenowned for its combination of repression, mismanagement and longevity.
\nThe novelist Alaa al Aswany remarked recently: \u201cIt\u2019s a turning point in
\nEgyptian history. We are in a very similar moment to 1949.\u201d Three years
\nafter 1949, there was a revolution. An old, decaying order had reached
\nits end point, as most old, decaying orders eventually do.<\/p>\n
But Egypt, today, is a bit of an odd case. Economic indicators tell a different story \u2013 one of a country attracting investment, privatising industry, reducing the deficit and otherwise embracing difficult reforms. The prime minister Ahmed Nazif\u2019s cabinet of technocrats, which has overseen annual GDP growth of around 7 per cent, draws constant plaudits from international financial institutions. In 2008, the World Bank\u2019s Doing Business report named Egypt the world\u2019s top reformer.<\/p>\n
This is an appealing model, although not necessarily a new one. For western powers skittish about the kind of uninformed choices Arabs might make if given the opportunity to vote, sequentialism provides an attractive alternative \u2013 focus on the economy now, worry about political reform later.<\/p>\n
Egypt\u2019s progress is not limited to economic indicators, as intangible as they often are. The literacy rate has jumped to 72 per cent. Life expectancy has seen a dramatic increase. The fertility rate is down to about three births, while infant mortality has been more than halved since 1990. To those who argue that Egypt could \u2013 and should be \u2013 a lot better than it is, the autocrat-technocrats retort, not entirely without reason, that it could be a lot worse.<\/p>\n
These statistics, however, miss the point. Yes, Egyptians are better educated and more connected to the world around them than ever before. But, if anything, it is precisely this success, however modest, that suggests the status quo is not likely to last.<\/p>\n
Systemic change, whether in the form of revolution or managed democratic transition, is often a product of improved living standards, which, in turn, fuel a rise in expectations. People have more (or are at least aware that others do), so they want more. More importantly, because they\u2019re educated, they believe they have the right to want more.<\/p>\n
It also happens to be the case that the Egyptian government seems rather clueless, or, worse, careless, when it comes to redistributing the gains of a purportedly booming economy. Economic inequality remains disturbingly high. But perceived inequality \u2013 in an age when businessmen join the ruling party, \u201cwin\u201d a parliamentary seat and acquire immunity \u2013 is even worse.<\/p>\n
So while sequentialism works \u2013 China, for one, appears to be managing it quite well \u2013 it doesn\u2019t work forever. In any sequence, something must come after what came before. And, unlike the World Bank or western governments, Egyptians aren\u2019t willing to wait patiently for the right time. While Mr Nazif\u2019s cabinet has been courting business and investment, unrest in Egypt has risen to unprecedented levels.<\/p>\n
According to a Solidarity Centre report published earlier this year, from 2004 to 2008, more than 1.7 million Egyptian workers participated in over 1,900 labour-related protests. The riots, the strikes and the sit-ins have gone largely unnoticed by the West, in part because they do not appear to be explicitly political \u2013 at least not yet.<\/p>\n
It is interesting, then, that observers so often fault Egyptians for their apparent passivity. This, conveniently, allows western policy makers to persuade themselves that Egypt will not become another Iran or another, well, Egypt, circa 1952. Egyptians might want change, so the thinking goes, but they don\u2019t seem particularly interested in actually doing anything.<\/p>\n
But, again, the numbers belie such claims. The short-lived \u201cArab spring\u201d in the first half of 2005, after all, saw Egypt\u2019s first ever mass-mobilisation in support of democracy, with over 150,000 participating in protests, demonstrations and campaign rallies. Presumably that counts (and, presumably, suggests that American pressure does, in fact, matter).<\/p>\n
More recently, Egypt\u2019s notoriously fractious opposition seems bolder and more energetic. There has been a flurry of coalition building and shuttle diplomacy between Egypt\u2019s various parties and movements. The National Association for Change (NAC), led by the former IAEA chief Mohammed ElBaradei, has launched a grassroots campaign in support of seven reform demands, which include an end to emergency law and an unrestricted right to contest presidential elections. As of July 25, the petition had garnered over 248,000 signatures. Impressively, the Muslim Brotherhood, which joined the campaign, claims to have collected 165,000 of them in just 18 days.<\/p>\n
All of this suggests that there is, today, a critical mass for substantive change. The lines between economic and political reform are increasingly blurred, replaced by an enveloping sense that too much has gone wrong for too long. In a way, by focusing on western demands for economic restructuring \u2013 and the personal enrichment that has accompanied it \u2013 Egypt\u2019s ruling elites have become almost comically out of touch with their own people. While they continue emphasising their economic bona fides to the few who still care to listen, their own citizens are angry, growing angrier, and \u2013 more importantly \u2013 doing something about it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-13776","opinion","type-opinion","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/opinion\/13776","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/opinion"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/opinion"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13776"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}