The Brookings Doha Center (BDC) hosted a panel discussion on June 3, 2015 regarding the future of U.S.-GCC security cooperation and the implications for the broader Middle East. The panelists were Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Center; Tamara Cofman Wittes, director\u00a0and senior fellow in the\u00a0Center for Middle East Policy (CMEP); and Ken Pollack, senior fellow in CMEP. BDC Director Salman Shaikh moderated the event, which was attended by members of Qatar’s diplomatic, academic, and media community.<\/p>\n
Al-Ketbi opened the discussion by reflecting on U.S.-GCC relations in the wake of the May 13-14 Camp David Summit between President Obama and delegations from various GCC countries. In Al-Ketbi\u2019s view, Gulf leaders were concerned that U.S. strategic priorities for the region \u201cfocus only on reaching a [nuclear] deal with Iran, while disregarding Iranian interventions.\u201d She pointed to the role of Iran as a destabilizing factor in conflicts such as Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, while also pointing to the failure of the U.S. to take regional fears about Iran into account, particularly with regards to a potential Iranian role in Bahrain. Al-Ketbi spoke of the need for the United States to take a clear stance in solidarity with the Arab Gulf states \u2013 such as \u201cextending its nuclear umbrella\u201d or \u201csigning a strategic partnership\u201d \u2013 in order to assure these countries that it was not \u201cturning over the security of the Gulf to Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n
While acknowledging Iran\u2019s long-standing attempts to interfere in the Arab world, Wittes held that changing domestic contexts in Arab countries had created new opportunities for Iran to exploit. She noted that a nuclear deal with Iran would not be enough to \u201cpush back\u201d Iran\u2019s influence, but contended that an effective response must also address underlying concerns within Arab countries, such as local grievances and poor governance. With regards to the Camp David discussions, Wittes highlighted greater GCC unity on the issue of Syria as a key outcome, as well as coordinated GCC pressure on the United States to get more involved in Syria. Still, she noted, \u201cThis is also the place where the United States is most reluctant to get involved.\u201d<\/p>\n
Pollack underscored the Obama administration\u2019s reluctance to take stronger action in Syria, saying that \u201cThe only thing consistent [about the administration\u2019s policy] is the refusal to get involved.\u201d While he stated that a nuclear deal with Iran would remove at least one destabilizing factor from the region for ten years, he pointed to the region\u2019s ongoing civil wars \u2013 in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya \u2013 as a key challenge for U.S. policy in the region. Particularly on Syria, he held that the U.S. administration had not put forward any viable alternatives to the present cycle of violence. Creating better alternatives \u201cis the role we\u2019re supposed to play, and that\u2019s where we\u2019re failing,\u201d he cautioned.<\/p>\n
Both Al-Ketbi and Wittes highlighted greater GCC unity in facing regional issues, with all except Oman agreeing that Iran was at the top of the list of their security priorities. This only reinforced the gap between U.S. and Gulf visions for regional security priorities. Pollack pointed to the continued U.S. military presence in the Gulf \u2013 air force squadrons, naval forces, infantry brigades \u2013 as adequate to deter or defeat any \u201cconventional threat\u201d from Iran, but falling short of addressing Gulf fears of proxy conflicts or fomenting civil wars.<\/p>\n
In discussing the sectarian nature of many of these civil conflicts, Al-Ketbi contended that the United States had failed to address this sectarianism despite the fact that \u201cit was the invasion of Iraq that was the starting point of this sectarianism.\u201d She contended that U.S. strategy for the region prioritized combatting various manifestations of terrorism, rather than addressing the root causes in various conflicts. She also held that \u201cthe United States does not concentrate on massacres committed by the Shia, only those committed by the Sunni.\u201d<\/p>\n
Discussion turned to the future of the American security role in the Gulf, with Wittes reminding the audience that the United States, though the strongest power, was not all-powerful. Though Al-Ketbi likewise conceded that the United States remained the top power in the region, she noted that \u201cthe GCC countries are diversifying their [strategic] relationships, perhaps because of the bitterness they feel [toward the United States].\u201d Likewise, Pollack held that China and India would undoubtedly come to play a greater role in providing for Gulf security in the near future. \u201cThe question is whether they are going to be productive, responsible, constructive players, or destructive and divisive,\u201d he said, arguing that the United States had a role to play in peacefully integrating rising powers into the existing Gulf security architecture.<\/p>\n
In response to a question about potential GCC diplomatic engagement with Iran, Al-Ketbi maintained that attempts had been made at Track-II outreach to build trust between both sides. She maintained, though, that Iran had made it impossible for GCC actors to believe in promises made in either an official or an unofficial capacity. She also defended GCC support to the Egyptian government led by President al-Sisi, saying that \u201cthe GCC countries are not supporting Sisi, but Egypt and its stability, which are very important [to them.]\u201d<\/p>\n
Pollack and Wittes both responded to suggestions that U.S. policies toward the region were riddled with inconsistencies by suggesting that no great power\u2019s foreign policy is ever fully internally consistent. \u201cAs long-time friends and allies, we should be able to recognize that we have differences,\u201d said Pollack of U.S.-GCC relations. They both noted that the United States would have to find new ways to move forward on strategies regarding the region, but developing more inclusive approaches to resolving challenges such as arms proliferation in the Gulf and the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":76263,"template":"","class_list":["post-76262","event","type-event","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","entry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/event\/76262","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/event"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/event"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76262"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}