On October 29, 2014, the Brookings Doha Center (BDC) hosted a panel discussion on the future of jihadi militancy in Iraq and Syria. The panel featured Richard Barrett, senior vice president of The Soufan Group; Charles Lister, visiting fellow at the BDC; and Bilal Abdul Kareem, a freelance journalist and documentary film-maker with extensive experience inside Syria. BDC Director of Research Sultan Barakat moderated the discussion, which was attended by members of Qatar’s diplomatic, academic, and media community.<\/p>\n
Barrett opened the discussion by tracing the origins of the IS group and its relationship with al-Qaeda. According to Barrett, IS\u2019s roots date back to at least the 1990s with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi\u2019s establishment of a jihadi training camp in Herat and the founding of Jund al-Sham. The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, he said, presented Zarqawi with an ideal battleground and opportunity to gain recruits and funding. In 2004, Zarqawi officially joined al-Qaeda as the head of the Islamic State in Iraq (ISI) militant group. Due to ideological differences between ISI and al-Qaeda\u2019s leadership, however, Barrett described this move as a \u201cmarriage of convenience.\u201d While Zarqawi focused on fighting local enemies, al-Qaeda viewed its movement in a more global context.<\/p>\n
Following Zarqawi\u2019s death in 2006, the group underwent numerous transformations and leadership transitions, resulting in a dramatic reduction in military operations. The Syrian uprising represented an important turning point for ISI. Inspired by the success of its offshoot, Jabhat al-Nusra, in Syria, ISI leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi extended his group\u2019s operations into the neighboring country, announcing the establishment of the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). ISIS\u2019s attempt to claim leadership over al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra led to a deepening rift between Baghdadi and al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. According to Barrett, however, this rift \u201cis more apparent than real,\u201d with the two organizations sharing the same core objectives.<\/p>\n
Lister then spoke, attributing IS\u2019s military success to Baghdadi\u2019s \u201cprofessionalization of the organization,\u201d his recruitment of experienced individuals (particularly Ba\u2019thist officers) to oversee military operations, as well as a concerted \u201ccampaign of intimidation\u201d against security officials and local populations. According to Lister, these factors have enabled IS to \u201cexploit societal frustrations\u201d and extend its control over Sunni areas of Iraq and Syria. Another key source of IS\u2019s strength, he said, is the group\u2019s financial independence. While recent media attention has focused on foreign funding, Lister argued that only 5% of IS\u2019s income is provided by external donors. The organization has largely bought influence and funded its activities through oil sales, extortion, taxation, and the selling of stolen antiques on the black market. Lister argued that recent strikes against IS-controlled oil refineries are misguided, as they will provide the group with a further opportunity to blame the international community for the scarcity of oil and electricity cuts during the upcoming winter.<\/p>\n
When asked whether IS was motivated by \u201cmoney or ideology,\u201d Abdul Kareem argued that most jihadis in Syria were driven by two factors\u2014the establishment of an Islamic state and the desire to relieve the suffering of the Syrian people\u2014adding that \u201conce they get [to Syria] they fall into different approaches and methodologies.\u201d Abdul Kareem said that attacks against Western countries were never a priority for jihadis in Syria, arguing that \u201cBlowback is only an issue when there is international intervention.\u201d<\/p>\n
All three panelists agreed that the coalition\u2019s campaign was far too limited to halt the spread of IS. Lister, for example, argued that the coalition\u2019s approach was too focused on counterterrorism measures. \u201cStrikes will only minimally contain IS,\u201d he said, arguing in favor of a more long-term approach aimed at supporting and strengthening moderate Sunni forces. Abdul Kareem explained that by exclusively targeting IS, the coalition had failed to take a clear position against the Assad regime, now responsible for over 250,000 deaths in Syria. The people on the ground, he said, can\u2019t help but question the sincerity of the air campaign, thus bolstering greater anti-Western sentiment. He warned that \u201cfighters from other groups who were not sold on the ISIS model will join ISIS after the bombings.\u201d Barrett also agreed that \u201cwe need a different strategy; we can\u2019t be fighting the same war of 2001.\u201d The lack of effective governance, a reliable justice system, and equal opportunities for citizens have contributed to turning local populations into enemies of the state. \u201cIf you fill the governance gap,\u201d he said, \u201cISIS will become a much less attractive option.\u201d Barrett called for greater regional action in filling this void, urging further involvement from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, and Qatar.<\/p>\n
When the floor was opened to questions, one member of the audience asked about the existence of possible links between the Assad regime and IS. Lister explained that while the regime had facilitated the transfer of jihadi militants to ISI during the U.S. occupation of Iraq, there are no \u201cconcrete coordinative links\u201d between the two groups. The Assad regime has, at times, avoided any direct confrontation with the group simply because it had \u201cother enemies to fight.\u201d As IS advances further into Syria, he said, \u201cWe will begin to see further clashes between these two forces.\u201d Nevertheless, all panelists argued that IS could not be defeated without first addressing the issue of Assad. \u201cThe more the regime kills the more this radicalism will grow,\u201d explained Lister, pointing to a political transition as the only possible way forward. Another member of the audience inquired about alternative measures to fight IS. Abdul Kareem explained that supporting moderate groups with no traction on the ground, such as the FSA, would not be an effective solution. He said, \u201cIf Western forces or Western-backed forces replace ISIS there will be no peace in those areas,\u201d concluding that \u201cthat there needs to be an Islamic solution to this issue or it will fail.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":74257,"template":"","class_list":["post-74256","event","type-event","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","entry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/event\/74256","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/event"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/event"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}