{"id":72435,"date":"2013-12-01T06:20:13","date_gmt":"2013-12-01T06:20:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookings.alley.test\/events\/russias-role-in-the-middle-east\/"},"modified":"2013-12-01T06:20:13","modified_gmt":"2013-12-01T06:20:13","slug":"russias-role-in-the-middle-east","status":"publish","type":"event","link":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/event\/russias-role-in-the-middle-east\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia’s Role in the Middle East"},"content":{"rendered":"

On December 9, 2013, the Brookings Doha Center<\/a> (BDC) hosted a policy discussion on Russia\u2019s role in the Middle East. Speakers assessed Russia\u2019s political objectives in the region, its perception in the Arab world, and Moscow\u2019s involvement in the Syria crisis. The panel featured Dr. Vitaly Naumkin, director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Dr. Adnan Hayajneh, professor of political science and international affairs at Qatar University. The discussion was moderated by BDC Deputy Director Ibrahim Sharqieh and attended by members of Qatar\u2019s diplomatic, academic, business, and media communities. <\/p>\n

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Vitaly Naumkin opened the discussion with an overview of Russian relations with the Middle East. He argued that Russia\u2019s interests in the region have grown considerably in the last few years, especially following the advent of the Arab Spring. Given the region\u2019s \u201cstrategic importance\u201d and its growing \u201cturbulence,\u201d Russia has significantly increased its diplomatic activities in the Middle East. In spite of this, he claimed that Russia\u2019s economic ties with Arab countries are weaker than its trade relations with Turkey and Iran, while noting that Russia\u2019s overall presence in the Arab world is \u201cnot significant.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Naumkin explained that views of Russia\u2019s response to the Arab Spring have been distorted by a number of misconceptions. Russia \u201ccautiously\u201d welcomed the Arab uprisings and was not, as many believe, merely seeking to maintain the status quo out of a fear of change. Compared with the U.S., he explained, Russia is simply more conservative and slower to take positions on world developments. While hesitant to do so at the outset, Russia eventually supported revolutions in both Egypt and Tunisia. The Libyan uprising, on the other hand, \u201cwas a different story.\u201d After abstaining from voting on U.N. resolution 1973, which authorized the establishment of a no fly zone in Libya, Russia felt \u201ccheated\u201d by foreign powers when \u201ca no fly zone turned into direct military intervention.\u201d This clashed with Russia\u2019s world-view, he noted, a perspective built on respect for national sovereignty and international law, and opposition to military interventions without a Security Council mandate. <\/p>\n

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In view of this, Russian policy on Syria was guided by \u201cphilosophy\u201d and not \u201cpragmatic interests.\u201d He downplayed the importance of Russia\u2019s trade relations with Syria or its base in Tartous, arguing that Russia had no ambitions of maintaining a military presence in the Arab world. Russia\u2019s stance on Syria is driven by lessons learned from the Libyan intervention rather than by blind support for the Assad regime. According to Russia, the Syrian crisis should be resolved \u201cby Syrians,\u201d without external intervention, through a process of broad national reconciliation and dialogue. <\/p>\n

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When asked to clarify Russia\u2019s objectives in Syria, Naumkin explained that Russia wants to avoid a \u201cSomalization\u201d of the conflict, ensuring that Syria remains a unified country. The only possible scenario, for Russia, is an agreement between conflicting parties as \u201cwe are against the logic of toppling regimes.\u201d He praised Russia\u2019s involvement in Geneva 2 and the chemical weapons agreement, while citing its efforts to reach out to both the regime and opposition. At the same time, he noted that, with more than 500 Russian jihadis fighting in Syria, Russia feels increasingly threatened by the growing role of such foreign fighters in the conflict. Their goals and objectives are not democracy, he said. Russia also fears for the fate of minorities in Syria, worrying that Christians will be persecuted in Syria as in Iraq.<\/p>\n

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Turning to Egypt, Naumkin explained that Russia initially struggled with the Muslim Brotherhood victory, as the organization had been blacklisted in Russia due to its involvement with and support for the Chechnyan cause. Russia has been concerned with the Brotherhood\u2019s ideological influence on the country\u2019s large Muslim minority (roughly 20 million), especially regarding their views on statehood and relations with the Christian majority. Still, Putin strove to establish relations with the Morsi government, inviting Morsi to Moscow where the two discussed financial aid and Russian-Egyptian cooperation in the economic and energy sectors. According to Naumkin, the July coup and the subsequent deterioration of U.S.-Egypt relations opened up new possibilities for Russia, including a possible arms deal. Naumkin described this development as a \u201cvery good and positive transformation.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Adnan Hayajneh, on the other hand, took a very negative stance on Russia\u2019s role in the region. He argued that the Arab Spring is not a Western conspiracy \u201cas Russia seems to think,\u201d but the result of Arab sacrifices and aspirations. Russia should seek to understand this, instead of seeking to \u201ccontain\u201d the uprisings through coups and counter-revolutions. Russia\u2019s policies, he argued, are not based on sound ethics, calling Russia\u2019 stance on Syria a stain on its image. Hayajneh explained that Russia had played a major role in preventing a U.S. strike on Syria, while blocking other forms of intervention in the U.N., such as the establishment of a no fly zone or humanitarian corridors. \u201cWithout the Russian veto we would not be speaking about a Russian role in the Middle East,\u201d he asserted.<\/p>\n

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Despite Russia\u2019s growing involvement in the region, following Putin\u2019s accession to power in 2000, Hayajneh said that Russia would not be able to play a constructive role in the region, or be able to counter American influence. \u201cRussia does not think as a superpower,\u201d he said, describing relations between Arab countries and Russia as mere \u201cdiplomatic niceties.\u201d He portrayed Russia as a declining power, one that does not represent a model of democracy for the Arab people. Russia has never sided with Arab countries, stood up against U.S. interests in the region (particularly in the case of Iraq) or played a constructive role in resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. Furthermore, he added, any weapons deal between Russia and Egypt would be detrimental to the region.<\/p>\n

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When the floor was opened for questions, a member of the audience asked whether Russia could support an agreement between the Syrian regime and the opposition at Geneva 2, which excluded Assad. Naumkin cautioned that Geneva 2 is \u201conly the beginning of the process,\u201d expressing skepticism regarding its success. It won\u2019t be easy to reach a long-lasting agreement, he said, \u201cbut negotiations are better than killing.\u201d He then explained that Russia is not personally allied with Assad. Assad is a partner of the international community, he stated, referring both to Geneva 2 and the chemical weapons deal. Russia is not working to keep Assad in power permanently, he said, but \u201cwe need this partner for the next six months.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":72436,"template":"","class_list":["post-72435","event","type-event","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","entry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/event\/72435","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/event"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/event"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72435"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}