On February 21, 2011, on the occasion of the third anniversary of its opening, the Brookings Doha Center hosted a policy discussion on “Turkey\u2019s New Regional Diplomacy: Ambitions and Constraints.” \u00d6mer Ta\u015fp\u0131nar, director of the Turkey Project at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C., and Birol Ba\u015fkan, visiting professor at Georgetown University\u2019s School of Foreign Service in Qatar, discussed the current state of Turkey\u2019s foreign policy in the region and beyond, analyzing the development of its ambitious reach and providing an assessment of future prospects in a fast evolving landscape. The event was moderated by Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center, and attended by members of Qatar\u2019s academic, business, diplomatic and media communities.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan began the discussion by addressing what he argued were misconceptions about Turkey\u2019s foreign policy. He suggested that the perception of an \u201caxis shift\u201d away from the West and towards the East, in strengthening relations with Iran, Syria and other Arab countries, was misleading. Such a view ignores the real breadth of Turkey\u2019s new foreign policy, which equally reaches out to other regions, including the Balkans, South East Asia, and Latin America. Rather, he argued, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019s foreign policy has sought specifically to \u201ctranscend and capitalize on\u201d whatever axes of power may exist.<\/p>\n
Looking at the domestic conditions that have informed Ankara\u2019s foreign policy, Ba\u015fkan argued that security was \u201chistorically [its] main driver.\u201d Freed from that constraint after the decline of Kurdish separatism, Erdo\u011fan has turned to foreign policy as a means by which to secure his legitimacy, establishing a \u201chigh international profile\u201d that would dispel public concerns or conspiratorial jabs about his Islamist credentials. Securing economic growth has been key in this regard, and Ba\u015fkan asserted that this is the most important lens through which to view Turkey\u2019s foreign policy. Riding on an export-boom throughout the 2000s, it has been the search for new markets, rather than any ideological program, that has driven what he called Ankara\u2019s \u201cmerchant politics.\u201d<\/p>\n
Omer Ta\u015fp\u0131nar agreed with Ba\u015fkan\u2019s assertion that an appreciation of domestic dynamics is fundamental to understanding Turkey\u2019s foreign policy. He suggested that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) had \u201cridden the wave of economic recovery\u201d that followed the \u201clost decade of the 1990s,\u201d when suppression of the PKK had significantly strained relations with the West and led to political and economic stagnation.<\/p>\n
In explaining the perceived \u201caxis shift\u201d in Ankara\u2019s regional approach, Ta\u015fp\u0131nar stressed that it was not ideologically motivated, but came about as part of the \u201czero problem policy\u201d championed by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davuto\u011flu. This approach, based on seeking opportunities rather than avoiding threats, sees Turkey engage with all players in the region, often in the role of mediator (as in its efforts to broker a peace deal between Syria and Israel in 2008). It would not be possible however, argued Ta\u015fp\u0131nar, without the \u201cindependence and self-confidence\u201d delivered by economic growth.<\/p>\n
Turning to the constraints on Ankara\u2019s ambitious foreign policy, Ta\u015fp\u0131nar pointed out that it could in fact prove \u201coverambitious\u201d at times. In a region rife with conflicts of interest, realpolitik often dealt a blow to efforts to pursue an even handed approach with rivaling neighbors \u2013 as in the case of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Ta\u015fp\u0131nar further argued that this overambition was flawed in its neglect of certain issues, domestic and foreign, that continue to plague Ankara. He stressed that in order for Turkey\u2019s \u201czero problem \u00a0policy\u201d to ring true, it must do more to resolve the Kurdish question, find a settlement in Cyprus, and successfully normalize relations with Armenia.<\/p>\n
Following presentations from both speakers, the floor was opened for questions. Moderator Salman Shaikh asked about Turkey\u2019s approach to the current wave of popular uprisings in the region. Ta\u015fp\u0131nar argued that similar to the US and EU, Turkey is afflicted by the conflict between interests and ideals, given its reliance on stability for economic growth, and its status as \u201cthe most democratic, secular and pro-Western country in the Islamic world.\u201d He reasoned that Erdo\u011fan is currently striking a fair balance, and is doing well to shy away from the Western tendency to tout \u201cthe Turkish model\u201d \u2013 a move which would be \u201ctoo na\u00efve and arrogant.\u201d<\/p>\n
Asked about the relevance of the Turkish model, Ba\u015fkan asserted that it does provide two essential components of successful democratization in the Arab world, namely a secular state structure and the \u201cseparation of political and economic powers.\u201d He argued that the lack of the latter in Egypt may stall the process there. Ba\u015fkan added that economic and political liberalization \u2013 with consistent pressure from the IMF and the negotiations on EU accession \u2013 have also been crucial in the Turkish case. Ta\u015fp\u0131nar argued that there were \u201ctwo models\u201d that invite comparison and debate, one relating to the role of the military as a \u201cguardian of the system\u201d and another relating to the integration of Islamist parties and the Muslim Brotherhood. He asserted that the latter model was more relevant, but emphasized that the Brotherhood would \u201chave to learn that a Hamas-like agenda would not work\u201d in foreign policy, adding that it did already seem to be showing signs of moderating and becoming more accommodating.<\/p>\n
On the question of the integration of Islamist parties in democratic processes, Ba\u015fkan argued that it was necessary for these parties to detach and distinguish themselves from the large grassroots organizations which they grow out of \u2013 as in the case of the AKP. Referring to the success of the process in Turkey, Ta\u015fp\u0131nar stated that it is now wrong view the AKP as an Islamist or illiberal force. He pointed out that the party enjoys much centrist support, and is criticized by its opponents as leaning too much towards the EU and US. The \u201csecular-Islamist\u201d divide is not applicable to Turkey, and continued democratization there is in fact more a case of shifting \u201cfrom a radical to a moderate secularism\u201d than it is a move away from Islamism.<\/p>\n
One audience member asked about the implications of the Egyptian revolution on the Israel-Palestine conflict, and how Turkey\u2019s role may change. Ta\u015fp\u0131nar said that recent developments made clear that \u201ctime is not on Israel\u2019s side,\u201d and that it must \u201cabandon its maximalist stance on settlements\u201d and quickly move towards a resolution in order to make sure it does not lose both Turkey and Egypt as potential partners.\u00a0 Ba\u015fkan, meanwhile, argued that Egypt should in future join Turkey in \u201cavoiding specific alliances\u201d and embrace a role \u2013 more credible than it may have been under Mubarak \u2013 of mediation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-69505","event","type-event","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/event\/69505","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/event"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/event"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69505"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}