{"id":466034,"date":"2022-09-14T13:33:45","date_gmt":"2022-09-14T13:33:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mecouncil.org\/?post_type=event&p=466034"},"modified":"2022-09-14T13:33:45","modified_gmt":"2022-09-14T13:33:45","slug":"the-changing-geopolitics-of-the-red-sea-gulf-rivalries-and-global-competition","status":"publish","type":"event","link":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/event\/the-changing-geopolitics-of-the-red-sea-gulf-rivalries-and-global-competition\/","title":{"rendered":"The changing geopolitics of the Red Sea: Gulf rivalries and global competition"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Brookings Doha Center (BDC) held a panel discussion on February 26<\/span>, 2020 on the changing geopolitics of the Red Sea<\/span>, which assessed<\/span>\u00a0the\u00a0<\/span>opportunities and risks posed by regional<\/span>\u00a0rivalries and\u00a0<\/span>great power<\/span>\u00a0competition in the region. The panel consisted of a group of distinguished scholars and experts, including: Zach Vertin,\u00a0<\/span>visiting fellow at the BDC and nonresident fellow in the Brookings Foreign Policy program<\/span>; Rashid Abdi, researcher and analyst on the Horn of Africa<\/span>\u00a0and the Gulf<\/span>; and Khalid Al-Jaber, director of the Middle East and North Africa Center for Research. Afyare A. Elmi, associate professor of security studies in the Gulf Studies\u00a0<\/span>p<\/span>rogram at Qatar University, moderated the event, which was attended by members of Doha\u2019s diplomatic, academic, and media communities.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Zach Vertin opened the discussion by\u00a0<\/span>pointing out that there has been an unprecedented surge in Gulf engagement across the\u00a0<\/span>Horn of Africa<\/span>\u00a0in recent years<\/span>. This new trans-regional dynamic has<\/span>\u00a0challeng<\/span>ed<\/span>\u00a0the boundaries of two regions that, though enjoined by the Red Sea, were\u00a0<\/span>previously thought of as being distinct<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0Vertin<\/span>\u00a0argued that asymmetry\u00a0<\/span>has defined this<\/span>\u00a0new dynamic<\/span>,\u00a0<\/span>as<\/span>\u00a0smaller, richer Gulf states engag<\/span>e<\/span>\u00a0with larger, poorer African states.<\/span>\u00a0He<\/span>\u00a0stated that, while there is a huge opportunity for political and economic integration in the Red Sea region, there are also considerable risks.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Addressing the question of why the Gulf has increased its engagement with the Horn of Africa,\u00a0<\/span>Vertin<\/span>\u00a0identified a number of key motivations, including\u00a0<\/span>the desire<\/span>\u00a0to project influence abroad, ensure regime security, promote counterterrorism, and shape maritime trade.<\/span>\u00a0He<\/span>\u00a0added that the Gulf crisis has been exported to the Horn of Africa, with considerable destabilizing impacts.<\/span>\u00a0Vertin also discussed the issues that are likely to shape Red Sea geopolitics going forward, including the war in Yemen, the upcoming elections in Somalia, the political transitions in Sudan and Ethiopia, Gulf states\u2019 tensions with each other and with Iran, and the Nile water negotiations. Lastly, Vertin advocated for the creation of a Red Sea\u00a0<\/span>f<\/span>orum, through which all relevant regional players could come together to discuss challenges.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rashid Abdi\u00a0<\/span>continued<\/span>\u00a0the discussion<\/span>\u00a0by\u00a0<\/span>noting that the Horn of Africa is\u00a0<\/span>historically conflict-prone,\u00a0<\/span>in addition to facing<\/span>\u00a0one of the largest human displacement crises in the world<\/span>\u00a0and<\/span>\u00a0a pattern of political transitions that never seem to end. He added that the impact of the Gulf crisis has been acute across the Horn<\/span>\u00a0for a variety of reasons. In Somalia, for instance, there is a long history of engagement with the Gulf and a political class with close links to the Arab world. As such, the Gulf crisis forced Somalia\u2019s political elite to choose between the Qataris and the Emiratis, leading to serious rifts.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Abdi noted that Gulf states are investing in the Horn of Africa in part to compete with one another politically, economically, and militarily. He highlighted that many of the geopolitical realities in the Gulf stem from the awareness of a post-oil future. These states want to make use of the money they have now to invest strategically in the Horn; Ethiopia, for example, has some of the richest water resources in the region. Abdi also argued that Gulf interest in the Horn<\/span>\u00a0has the potential<\/span>\u00a0to produce positive outcomes, pointing to Qatari efforts to broker a settlement between Somalia and Kenya and Saudi-Emirati\u00a0<\/span>efforts<\/span>\u00a0to broker<\/span>\u00a0peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Khalid Al-Jaber\u00a0<\/span>shifted the focus of the discussion to the religious and ideological issues shaping the Red Sea region<\/span>, noting<\/span>\u00a0the increase in Sunni-Shiite conflict and the rise in extremism. Al-Jaber also discussed how the Gulf crisis has divided states in the Horn of Africa; Eritrea and Djibouti, for example, are aligned with opposing sides of the blockade<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span>He added that, while Western aid is contingent upon\u00a0<\/span>implementing democratic\u00a0<\/span>and\/<\/span>or market reforms,\u00a0<\/span>Gulf\u00a0<\/span>assistance is\u00a0<\/span>contingent<\/span>\u00a0upon loyalty.<\/span>\u00a0Al-Jaber also commented on how conflicting Gulf allegiances shape media coverage of Horn states, pointing to the differences between how Sudan\u2019s recent uprising was covered by Qatar\u2019s\u00a0<\/span>Al Jazeera<\/span>\u00a0and the United Arab Emirates\u2019\u00a0<\/span>Sky News<\/span>\u00a0Arabia<\/span>. He concluded that Gulf involvement in the Horn is also shaped by a broader set of medium-power interventions, especially from states such as Iran and Turkey<\/span>,<\/span>\u00a0which\u00a0<\/span>the Gulf states view<\/span>\u00a0as threats.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In the subsequent question and answer session,\u00a0<\/span>panelists focused on prospects for peace in the Horn and the role of great power<\/span>s\u00a0<\/span>in the Red Sea region.<\/span>\u00a0Abdi called into question the sustainability of the peace that was brokered between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2018. Vertin noted that the peace deal was actually almost entirely driven by domestic Ethiopian politics, rather than by Gulf states.\u00a0<\/span>Vertin also discussed the relationship between Gulf states and China in the Horn, referring to it as \u201ccoop-etition\u201d (i.e. something between cooperation and competition) and saying that both sides are still feeling each other out.<\/span>\u00a0Abdi\u00a0<\/span>argued that\u00a0<\/span>Gulf states have significant issues with China\u2019s model of engagement; Al-Jaber agreed, adding that Gulf states have a problem with China\u2019s treatment of Muslims.\u00a0<\/span>Vertin also discussed Europe\u2019s interest in the region, which he attributed to migration issues and the size of the Horn\u2019s market, and U.S. interest, which he associated with free trade and conflict-related concerns.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-466034","event","type-event","status-publish","hentry","entry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/event\/466034","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/event"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/event"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil-afkar.fuegodigitalmedia.qa\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=466034"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}